Estimation of voting intention

The CIS produces estimated election results from the polls carried out in January, April, July and October and the pre-electoral surveys. Said estimation is presented together with the results preview for said surveys.

A statistical model is used to estimate the election outcome based on the declared voting intention of the people interviewed and other data from the survey. The CIS publicises the answers to the question on voting intention as well as the results obtained by applying the estimation model. Applying other models to the same data may result in different estimates of the election results.

By offering free access to the data matrices each user can apply his own estimation model to the CIS data, if deemed appropriate.